Principles of Cash Flow Valuation: An Integrated Market-Based Approach

APPENDIX B

B11.1 Estimated Macroeconomic Variables

In this appendix we present some context and parameters used in the financial model used for valuation. We also present the financial statements: IS, CB and BS. The macroeconomic variables used in the model were the goals agreed on between the International Monetary Fund and Colombia. In addition, the consultant made his own estimations for some of the variables (see Table B11.1).

Table B11.1: Estimated Financial and Macroeconomic Variables and Parameters

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005+

Payout ratio

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

10.00%

Domestic annual inflation rate per annum

11.00%

10.00%

9.00%

8.00%

8.00%

8.00%

IA index (PAAG) per annum

11.00%

10.00%

9.00%

8.00%

8.00%

8.00%

Foreign inflation rate (U.S.)

2.50%

2.50%

2.50%

2.50%

2.50%

2.50%

Annual rate of change for the U.S. dollar

9.38%

7.32%

6.34%

5.37%

5.37%

5.37%

Cost of debt in foreign currency

9.00%

9.00%

9.00%

9.00%

9.00%

9.00%

Cost of debt in domestic currency

25.60%

24.60%

23.60%

22.60%

22.60%

22.60%

Market interest rate for cash excess investment (DTF)

15.00%

14.00%

13.00%

12.00%

12.00%

12.00%

B11.2 Construction Period

B11.2.1 Investment

The investment budget was taken from ALCATEL and JECR and Co. The amounts of investment were the following (see Table B11.2):

Table B11.2: Investment

Total investment

USD$ thousands

US$/line

Land

109.30

6.63

Buildings and civil works

470.20

28.50

Telephone networks

5,216.20

316.13

Commutation and power equipment

6,543.80

396.60

Transmission systems

684.00

41.46

Machinery and equipment

279.70

16.95

Feasibility studies and initial operation

365.90

22.18

Working capital

886.10

53.70

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