Paradigms Lost: Learning from Environmental Mistakes, Mishaps, and Misdeeds

Part IV: What Is Next?

Chapter List

Chapter 12: Bottom Lines and Top of the Head Guesses
Appendix 1: Equilibrium
Appendix 2: Government Reorganizations Creating the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Appendix 3: Reliability in Environmental Decision Making
Appendix 4: Principles of Environmental Persistence
Appendix 5: Cancer Slope Factors
Appendix 6: Equations for Calculating Lifetime Average Daily Dose (LADD) for Various Routes of Exposure
Appendix 7: Characterizing Environmental Risk
Appendix 8: Risk-Based Contaminant Cleanup Example
Appendix 9: Shannon-Weiner Index Example
Appendix 10: Useful Conversions in Atmospheric Chemistry

Part Overview

As mentioned in the beginning of this book, analyzing cases not only tells us what went wrong, but what can be done about it. The case analyses give the opportunity to construct scenarios for the future. The stockbrokers' advice that "past performance does not necessarily predict future results" holds equally true for environmental predictions. However, the information from the analyses gives us an opportunity to assess possible outcomes given certain assumptions.

There are many methods for predicting the future. For example, you can read horoscopes, tea leaves, tarot cards, or crystal balls. Collectively, these methods are known as "nutty methods." Or you can put well-researched facts into sophisticated computer models, more commonly referred to as "a complete waste of time."
Scott Adams, U.S. cartoonist [1]

Overview

Any book with case studies calls for an assessment of the lessons learned, suggestions for improving things, and predictions of what will happen under various present and future scenarios. These considerations may be either...

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