Tourism Management Dynamics: Trends, Management and Tools

Roslyn A Russell
Chaos theory has emerged as a useful framework that provides a greater insight into phenomena that are complex, unpredictable and uncertain. It is often referred to as the 'science of change' (Briggs and Peat, 1999) and can therefore add value to the study of any field that involves humans. Any system that is characterized by elements that dynamically interact is naturally prone to a chaotic state. Over the last ten years, chaos theory has emerged in the management literature providing a far more realistic framework for today and the future than previous management models based on stability, predictability and control. Organizations can be seen as complex adaptive systems and most are, more than ever before, experiencing edge-of-chaos states, making them sensitive to initial conditions where small impacts can have large consequences that cannot be predicted (Thietart and Forgues, 1995).
Chaos theory is a descriptive device in the form of a major metaphor chaos, with a number of metaphorical appendages. There is, however, a distinction between the common connotation of 'chaos' as unrestrained disorder, confusion and disarray and its scientific usage signifying behaviour in a system, such as a hotel, a car or family life. Impinging upon these systems are pressures, usually unpredictable, that induce or, more often, force a response that seems inconsistent with what was before. Chaos theory proposes that everything exists in a state of flux, that any appearance of a steady-state, in the usual sense, is illusory and...