Why Carbon Fuels Will Dominate The 21st Century's Global Energy Economy
This text provides a survey of the energy resources for the foreseeable future and argues that there is not, nor has there been, a supply crisis.
TABLE OF CONTENTS Why Carbon Fuels Will Dominate The 21st Century's Global Energy Economy
Overview
Although regularly recurring fears of the impending scarcity of nonrenewable energy have all proved groundless, the issue of the potential availability of coal, oil and natural gas seems to remain one of concern, reflecting the world s continuing overwhelming dependence on them for its energy needs. This concern, however, is misplaced, given recent important changes on both the supply and demand sides.
The Demand for Energy
Since 1973 the rate of increase in the global use of energy has fallen back to well under its 1860 1945 long-term trend of about 2.2% a year, compared with 5% a year from 1945 to 1973. The probability of a return in the future to the latter much higher annual rate of growth is now close to zero, given that it reflected the temporary combination of a set of conditions which cannot recur. Thus, a realistic consideration of long-term energy supply requirements now has to be orientated to a modest rate of growth in the use of energy, even before taking into account the possible impact of environmental concerns on non-renewable energy consumption or the now slowly accelerating pace of growth in renewable energies, emanating from evolving technologies of direct and indirect solar energy production.
Therefore, the long-term future availability of carbon energy sources can be considered relative to a growth of 2% a year as the highest likely requirement. Moreover, the year 2000 base from which we must now consider demand for coal, oil and gas in the 21st century is considerably lower than...
Copyright Peter Odell 2004 under license agreement with Books24x7
