The Analytics of Risk Model Validation
A collection of papers in this new and developing area of research, this book focuses on the quantitative side of model validation and covers model validation in credit, market, and operational risk.
TABLE OF CONTENTS The Analytics of Risk Model Validation
Chapter 1: Determinants of Small Business Default
Sumit Agarwal [ ] , Souphala Chomsisengphet [ ] and Chunlin Liu [ ]
Abstract
In this paper, we empirically validate the importance of owner and business credit risk characteristics in determining default behaviour of more than 31 000 small business loans by type and size. Our results indicate that both owner- and firm-specific characteristics are important predictors of overall small business default. However, owner characteristics are more important determinants of small business loans but not small business lines. We also differentiate between small and large business accounts. The results suggest that owner scores are better predictors of small firm default behaviours, whereas firm scores are better predictors of large firm default behaviour.
[*] The authors thank Jim Papadonis for his support of this research project. We also thank seminar participants at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, Brent Ambrose, Michael Carhill, John Driscoll, Ronel Elul, Tom Lutton, Larry Mielnicki, and Nick Souleles for helpful discussion and comments. We are grateful to Diana Andrade, Ron Kwolek, and Tim Murphy for their excellent research assistance. The views expressed in this research are those of the authors and do not represent the policies or positions of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, of any offices, agencies, or instrumentalities of the United States Government, or of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
[ ] Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago, IL
[ ] Office of the Comptroller of the Currency,...
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