The Analytics of Risk Model Validation

Dirk Tasche [ ]
Based on the theoretical binary classification framework, the notions of discriminatory power of a rating system and calibration of PD (probability of default) estimates are introduced. A variety of tools for measuring and testing discriminatory power and for testing correct calibration is presented.
[*] The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect views of Fitch Ratings.
[ ] Fitch Ratings Ltd., London, United Kingdom.