The Analytics of Risk Model Validation

Chapter 11: Validation of Internal Rating Systems and PD Estimates

Dirk Tasche [ ]

Abstract

Based on the theoretical binary classification framework, the notions of discriminatory power of a rating system and calibration of PD (probability of default) estimates are introduced. A variety of tools for measuring and testing discriminatory power and for testing correct calibration is presented.

[*] The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect views of Fitch Ratings.

[ ] Fitch Ratings Ltd., London, United Kingdom.

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