TABLE OF CONTENTS The preceding chapters give an optimistic view of the growth of tourism and the role of tourism as a vehicle for economic development. However, we might ask the question, 'Is this view not too optimistic and too generalized?'
In Chapter 3 we noted the WTO figures of inbound tourism by region. For the period 1995 2020 the expected average growth rate is 4.1 per cent, and varies from 3.0 per cent for Europe to 7.1 for the Middle East. This already provides a warning that the generalization of growth rates should be avoided. Most European and North American countries will show a high but not very high growth rate. Smeral (2004) shows even lower growth rates for the tourism exports (expenditure) of Japan, the USA and the EU for the period 2010 2020 (see Chapter 6). This is not surprising. Edwards (1988) was the first to recognize the ceilings in annual leave and public holidays and in holiday participation. We find confirmation of these phenomena in Chapter 3. In many European countries, public leave has not changed very much during the last two decades. The evolution in the last decade of net holiday propensity in several developed European countries is very surprising; even the gross holiday propensity shows signs of stagnation in some European countries. This trend is related to a shift from holidays to short holidays. Should this evolution be interpreted as a sign that tourism in developed countries will not always be such...
