TABLE OF CONTENTS In the early 1960 s, at about the same time as Smale [1] and Shilnikov [2] gained the first more detailed insights into the mathematical intricacies of deterministic chaos, J.W.Forrester of Massachusetts Institute of Technology published his seminal book on Industrial Dynamics [3]. During the preceding two decades, Forrester had established himself as one of the leading figures in the development of computer technology, and his aim was now to create the framework (a management laboratory) for the development of more successful managerial policies by combining dynamic model formulation with computer simulation.
From 1946 to 1951, Forrester had been director of MIT s Digital Computer Laboratory, responsible for the design and construction of Whirlwind I, one of the World s first high-speed digital computers. Whirlwind I was designed with conventional, but rather unreliable, electrostatic memory tubes. In 1949 Forrester happened to see an advertisement for nonlinear magnetic materials and within a few days he had described the principles, and demonstrated the function, of the magnetic core memory. From 1952 to 1956, Forrester headed the Digital Computer Division of MIT Lincoln Laboratory, guiding the planning and technical design of SAGE, the US Air Force s semiautomatic ground environment air defense system.
Forrester came away from the SAGE project with the conviction that no amount of technical expertise can compensate for poor management, and that his engineering background could help him understand important managerial issues. In Forrester s view, existing management science concentrated too much on the criteria for optimal choice in individual...
