OVERVIEW

I am not an economist. So perhaps I am being unfair to write a chapter with such a title. A man in a greenhouse should not throw stones. All the same, I am not alone in expressing scepticism of the economist s skill in predicting events, as the economic forecasts of most countries confirm. They do not seem any better in dealing with the oil business. I have witnessed many false economic evaluations of prospects, and have seen companies fail in their endeavours by allowing themselves to fall too much under the influence of economists. Certainly, the great international oil companies were built without the intervention of economists. I read economic reports that seem incapable of grasping resource constraints, and I am therefore less than convinced that they are working from the right premises in their work.

Where I live in southwest France are to be found many castles built during the hundred years war between the English and the French in the 11th Century. Looked at even by today s engineering standards, they are amazing structures, but when one pictures the conditions under which they were built, they are truly remarkable. Each stone had to be quarried, and transported to the site by horse. It had to be labouriously faced with a hammer and chisel, which was at least a day s work. Lime had to be slaked and cement made. It took forty years to build a castle, and even if the workers were not paid much, they certainly had...