The Banker’s Handbook on Credit Risk: Implementing Basel II

Running a Monte Carlo Simulation

Typically, to run a simulation in your existing Excel model, the following steps have to be performed:

  1. Start a new or open an existing simulation profile.

  2. Define input assumptions in the relevant cells.

  3. Define output forecasts in the relevant cells.

  4. Run simulation.

  5. Interpret the results.

If desired, and for practice, open the example file called Basic Simulation Model and follow along the examples below on creating a simulation. The example file can be found on the menu at Risk Simulator Examples.

1. Starting a New Simulation Profile

To start a new simulation, you must first create a simulation profile. A simulation profile contains a complete set of instructions on how you would like to run a simulation, that is, all the assumptions, forecasts, simulation run preferences, and so forth. Use of profiles facilitates creating multiple scenarios of simulations; that is, by using the same exact model, several profiles can be created, each with its own specific simulation assumptions, forecasts, properties, and requirements. The same analyst can create different test scenarios using different distributional assumptions and inputs, or multiple users can test their own assumptions and inputs on the same model. Instead of having to make duplicates of the same model, the same model can be used, and different simulations can be run through this model profiling process.

The following list provides the procedure for starting a new simulation profile:

  • Start Excel

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