The Banker’s Handbook on Credit Risk: Implementing Basel II

Chapter 15: Interest Rate Risk, Foreign Exchange Risk, Volatility Estimation, Risk Hedging, Yield Curve Forecasting, and Advanced Forecasting Techniques

A handbook on Basel II risk analysis is not complete without a discussion of risk hedging, specifically, looking at the effects of interest rate risk, the risk return profiles of a portfolio and the effects of correlation on portfolio risk, foreign exchange risk, volatilities, and the construction of the yield curve. In addition, the topic of financial and economic forecasting techniques is also included at the end of the chapter because every banker and financial analyst should understand the various concepts of advanced analytical forecasting (used in forecasting an obligor s financial conditions, interest rates, inflation rates, stock performance, pro forma statements, and revenues or cash flows in the future, and many other applications). These topics are discussed in this chapter through the use of several hands-on example models.

Illustrative Example: Risk Analysis Interest Rate Risk

File Name: Risk Analysis Interest Rate Risk

Location: Modeling Toolkit Risk Analysis Interest Rate Risk

Brief Description: Applies duration and convexity measures to account for a bond s sensitivity and how interest rate shifts can affect the new bond price, and how this new bond price can be approximated using these sensitivity measures

Requirements: Modeling Toolkit, Risk Simulator

Modeling Toolkit Functions Used: B2BondPriceDiscrete, B2ModifiedDuration, B2ConvexityDiscrete

Banks that sell fixed income products and vehicles need to understand interest rate risks. This model uses duration and convexity to show how fixed income products react under various market conditions. To compare the effects of interest rate and credit risks on fixed income investments, this model uses modified...

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