TABLE OF CONTENTS Yee Mey Goh [1], Julian Booker [1], and Chris McMahon [2]
| Abstract: | The result of a study on the incorporation of uncertainty into engineering design analysis processes is reported. The work presented comprises a review of deterministic and probabilistic design methods in approximating a design performance function and a comparison of their strengths and weaknesses as tools to aid designers in producing optimum designs. Probabilistic design has existed for more than 40 years, but the culture of deterministic design still dominates in engineering manufacture. An important question for the engineer concerns how probabilistic ideas may be used in design, which is the most appropriate probabilistic approach to use and what are the advantages and disadvantages of each approach? The authors seek to contribute towards an answer to these questions through a comparative assessment of probabilistic design techniques and two methods of deterministic design. |
| Key words: | Probabilistic design; Uncertainty; Design performance; Modelling. |
[1] Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Bristol;
[2] Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Bath
A deterministic approach to engineering analyses may result in inconsistent products (over- or under-design) owing to limitations in the information about design, service, material and manufacturing related parameters inherent in the approach [1]. This situation may in the future be unacceptable due to increased customer concern about reliability, the need to improve energy utilisation and increased global market competition in terms of cost and time to market. Probabilistic design offers the required realism needed in engineering analysis and...
