TABLE OF CONTENTS The increasing penetration level of wind power into power systems has resulted in the requirement for accurate, reliable, online wind power forecasting systems. The typical transmission system operator (TSO) requirements for a forecasting system have been identified by Schwartz (2000) as follows:
The forecasts should be of wind power output (in MW), rather than wind speed, with look-ahead times extending out to 48 hours.
The forecasts should be available for individual wind farms, for regional groupings of wind farms and for the total wind power installed in a TSO s area.
The forecasts should be accurate and supplied with an associated level of confidence clearly dispatchers would tend to be more conservative when dealing with large forecast uncertainties.
The forecast should predict changes in wind power reliably.
There should be a good understanding of the meteorological conditions which would lead to poor quality forecasts.
Historical data should be used to improve the forecast over time.
Wind power forecasts are used as inputs to the various simulation tools (market operations, unit commitment, economic dispatch and dynamic security assessment) available to the power system operators to ensure that economic, efficient and secure operation of the power system is maintained.
Over the last decade or so there has been considerable activity and progress in the development of wind power forecasting. However, there is still much scope for improvement. Two broad strands can be identified in the systems that have been developed so far: those using...
