The simple one-dimensional energy balance model used by IPCC to justify its radiative forcinghypothesis (see Figure 1) is unrealistic in its portrayal of processes at the earth-atmosphereinterface. The IPCC model suggests that the heat and latent energy exchange between the underlyingsurface and the atmosphere is a direct response to the imbalance of solar and terrestrial radiationat the surface. Such a proposal is at odds with the physics of the surface energy exchangeprocesses. In particular, the IPCC model takes no account of the effective thermal capacity of theunderlying surface that is an important component for regulating surface temperature.

Over land, solar radiation is absorbed at the surface (either by vegetation or soil) and heatpenetrates into the underlying material by conduction. The effective thermal layer for landsurfaces is shallow and temperature variations are confined to within a metre of the surface. Thechange in thermal capacity of the underlying land surface is small when considering long-termsurface temperature changes and only introduces a small error to the calculations. A furtherconsideration is changes to vegetation or soil moisture that will also have an effect on surfacetemperature through evapotranspiration and latent energy loss to the atmosphere.

Oceans make up about 70 percent of the earth s surface. When considering the earth s energyexchange processes it is erroneous to neglect the changing energy storage of the oceans surfacelayer. Solar radiation penetrates the ocean surface and is gradually absorbed with depth. The oceansurface layer, to a depth of about 100 metres, acts as an energy reservoir as...