If the ready availability of oil continues, it may be difficult for technology trends to be much of a driving force in global energy between now and 2015. Key questions have to do with continued oil imports, continued use of coal, sources of natural gas, and the fate of nuclear power. Nevertheless, technology may have significant effects in some areas.

Along with investments in solar energy, current investments in battery technology and fuel cells could enable continued trends in more portable devices and systems while extending operating times.

Developments in materials science and engineering may enable the energy systems of 2015 to be more distributed with a greater capability for energy storage, as well as energy system command, control, and communication. High-temperature superconducting cables, transformers, and storage devices could begin to increase energy transmission and distribution capabilities and power quality in this time frame.

The continued development of renewable energy could be enhanced by the combination of cheap, lightweight, recyclable materials (and perhaps the genetic engineering of biomass fuels) to provide cost-effective energy for developing countries without existing, well-developed energy infrastructures as well as for remote locations.

Significant changes in developed countries, however, may be driven more by existing social, political, and business forces, since the fuel mix of 2015 will still be strongly based on fossil fuels. Environmental concerns such as global warming and pollution might shift this direction, but it would likely require long-term economic problems (e.g., a prolonged rise in the price of oil) or...