I could not have generated the information, collected the photographs, or completed the project without the assistance and aid of others. I want to thank all of those who contributed to the successful completion of this book. My first debt is, of course, to my three amazing children who encouraged me to discover my writing purpose and pursue it with intense passion and perseverance. I am grateful that they understood the world must know this story. I am deeply grateful to my friend Mohsin Ali, former diplomatic editor for Reuters, who helped tremendously by serving as a guest lecturer to my college classes while I attended the many meetings. The hundreds of college students who participated in the research and surveys helped to get this book written. Unfortunately, some of these students perished in motor vehicle crashes. Many others were involved in crashes that caused them pain and injury. It was common to hear tragic stories on a daily basis. I constantly thank my college students and remind them that their involvement was important. What is written is never forgotten. I tell them that we learn more from our mistakes than from our successes. Hopefully, in this second century of motor vehicle travel, these students can experience the freedom to travel safely. I received much support and advice, and sometimes the best advice came from the naysayers who told me I was wasting my time. Fortunately, I turned all their negatives into positives. Many individuals are mentioned within, but this book is solely my project and all of the opinions expressed here (except for the direct quotations) are my own. I do not speak or write for the automakers, government safety establishment, standards development organizations, or advocates—but I do include their own works in my book and also what others have commented about them. I do not bash any group for all are important and I am very careful to be factual. I express my grateful appreciation to those who gave permission to use news articles and extended quotations such as the National Academies of Sciences / Transportation Research Board (TRB), the New York Times, Automotive News and EE Times, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Bank. Robert Kern, my literary agent in Chapel Hill, North Carolina and Cathy Faduska, my senior editor at IEEE Press / John Wiley & Sons, Inc. and Kay Ethier of Bright Path Solutions, Durham, North Carolina, helped craft the initial structure of my manuscript and greatly improved the book. The entire point of an editor is to decide what is and what is not fit to print, and any book will have some selection criteria. Those criteria and the editor's judgment are its bias. The best that any author can do is make it as clear as possible why everything should be included so as to avoid "unbiased" reporting where no one can be portrayed as being wrong or opposing safety. No courage is required to publish a sanitized, non-critical version of events. To do otherwise requires a higher standard. Vehicle and highway safety cannot be accomplished through the efforts of one person, a group, or a government agency. It is a shared responsibility among people who travel, the companies that provide transport, and the agencies that regulate travel. But, one person can make a difference toward the goal of safe travel. Someday, when we are "actually all safer" while traveling in crash-proof vehicles on intelligent highways, I want to tell my children's children that I knew about this problem and did my best to erase it when I could. I will tell them in life we have two choices, try or do nothing. To me it was impossible to witness the terrible pain and suffering and not get involved. Road safety is no accident. Silence is the ultimate weapon of power in vehicle and highway safety. This book will break that silence. |
One of the great pleasures of finishing a book is that it gives the author the opportunity to thank those who helped make the project a product.
TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 12 - The Road Ahead: Automotive's Second Century
Without question, the development of the automobile was among the most significant events of the 20th century. In a little over one hundred years the automobile has been transformed from a horseless carriage, a curiosity and in many cases, viewed by the public at the time as an annoyance, into one of most important modes of transportation in the world today. From a wooden wagon to a sophisticated vehicle that today has as much computer power and technology on board as the early manned space exploration vehicles. The advent of the automobile has had enormous affects on modern society, shrinking distances and making life in general simpler, more comfortable, and yet at the same time, more complex and sometimes more stressful. The automotive industry has evolved into one of the world's greatest industries; delivering consumers worldwide a broad array of products that offer utility, practicality, luxury, simplicity, enjoyment, comfort, sex appeal, prestige and, in my opinion, most importantly, safety. Over the last several decades alone, we have seen incredible advances in, and demand for, vehicles equipped with devices that create a safer environment for both the driver and passengers. The unfortunate truth, however, is that the automobile remains, despite all the years of safety improvements, one of the leading causes of death and injury in our nation." - Mark V. Rosenker, Vice-Chairman of the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) Automotive Industry Trends It would be hard to find a person living in our society today who isn't on an almost daily basis dependent upon - or at least somehow affected by - the automobile. The personal automobile enables us to live, work and play in ways that were unimaginable a century ago. It would be easy to argue that, indeed, auto-mobility is crucial to maintaining the manner of living to which our society has become accustomed. Not only are automobiles essential to our way of life because of how we use them, but our economic standard of living is dependent upon the industry itself. The fact is, America's automotive industry drives the U.S. economy. No other single industry is responsible for more manufacturing, generates more retail business, or provides more employment in this country. The automotive industry is responsible for 6.6 million jobs nationwide, or about 5% of private sector jobs. More than 3.7% of America's total gross domestic product is generated by the sale and production of new light vehicles. Impressive numbers to be sure, but how many other industries are at the root of 43,000 senseless deaths a year? We are often left with the impression that the automotive industry is on the cutting edge of safety applications with the design and manufacture of its ever-new vehicles. However, most automotive industry "history" regarding real-world safety improvements has been slow and painful. Government regulation or criticism of industry trends in this regard is often met with resentment and anger. A recent example of the sensitivity between the automotive industry and government regulators came when Senator John McCain opened hearings on the safety of sports-utility vehicles. Reporting on these hearings on February 27, 2003, the Detroit News headline was "Automakers Don't Deserve McCain's Disdain: Senator wrongly slurs the auto industry, while ignoring the harm done by federal regulators." The article said Senator McCain was treating the nation's automakers as if they were a bunch of tobacco executives. Furthermore, "The Arizona Republican questioned the veracity of America's automakers and expressed doubts that they could be trusted to produce safe vehicles without federal regulators watching over their shoulders." "You judge people by their history," McCain said. "Where is their credibility in establishing these voluntary vehicle standards?" Earlier in the week, McCain asked in an interview with the Detroit News: "Could this be the same industry that was opposed to seat belts, air bags, 10-mph bumpers, and would not see any increase in CAFE (fuel economy) standards?" While safety standards have obviously been inadequate to this point, there is now a fundamental re-thinking among industry leaders and engineers about the development of motor vehicles. Once the automobile was considered a mechanical device that included some electronic controls. Now, with improved sensors, processors, and general electronic capabilities, the automobile is becoming more of an electronic rather than a mechanical device. A significant increase in automotive electronic systems, coupled with related demands on power and design, have created a vast array of new engineering opportunities and challenges. According to the National Academy of Engineering, of the top twenty engineering breakthroughs of the 20th century, five were transportation related:
The number one engineering breakthrough? Electrification. Electronics have already made a tremendous impact on today's vehicles, but future vehicles will see virtually every major system in the automobile controlled by electronics. The challenge for the 21st century lies in the successful integration of the 10thcentury's engineering miracles - electrification, communication, information, and transportation - toward achieving real vehicle safety and highway safety. Gabriel Leen and Donal Heffernan, researchers at the University of Limerick, Ireland, wrote, "The past four decades have witnessed an exponential increase in the number and sophistication of electronic systems in vehicles. Today, the cost of electronics in luxury vehicles can amount to more than 23 percent of the total manufacturing cost. Analysts estimate that more than 80 percent of all automotive innovation now stems from electronics. To gain an appreciation of the change in the average dollar amount of electronic systems and silicon components - such as transistors, microprocessors, and diodes - in motor vehicles, we need only note that in 1977 the average amount was $110, while in 2001 it had increased to $1,800. The growth of electronic systems has had implications for vehicle engineering. For example, today's high-end vehicles may have more than 4 kilometers of wiring - compared to 45 meters in vehicles manufactured in 1955. In July 1969, Apollo 11 employed a little more than 150 Kbytes of onboard memory to go to the moon and back. Just 30 years later, a family car might use 500 Kbytes to keep the CD player from skipping tracks. The resulting demands on power and design have led to innovations in electronic networks for automobiles. Researchers have focused on developing electronic systems that safely and efficiently replace entire mechanical and hydraulic applications, and increasing power demands have prompted the development of 42-V automotive systems." Ninety-five percent of all miles in the United States (2.5 trillion miles) are traveled in personal vehicles as opposed to all types of public transportation. People are spending more time in their personal vehicles than ever before. North Americans spend 500 million passenger-hours in their vehicles each week, or 26 billion hours annually. With so much time increasingly spent behind the wheel, the need for addressing safety concerns with solutions that truly work becomes an ever more pressing concern. The good news is that automobile safety will be enhanced by digital developments as manufacturers shift their focus from under the hood to behind the wheel. By employing the power of digital technology, vehicles will run faster, smoother, and even smarter. So, what can consumers expect in the automobiles they'll be purchasing and driving in the near future? Consider the following trends: Electronic technology enhancements in safety will include: forward, side, and rear collision warning systems, adaptive cruise control, night vision, high-intensity discharge lights, front and side air bags, occupant sensing, low tire-pressure sensing, and intelligent center high-mounted brake lights. The automotive industry is moving from gasoline to hybrid to fuel cell. As the fuel economy increases, the amount of time that a vehicle may be operated will also increase. Event Data Recorder (EDR) technologies will be important in post-crash analyses of these vehicles. |
