Refining Processes Handbook

RULES FOR FORECASTER CHANGES

First, the cause of difference between the actual refinery production and combined DOP is investigated and the delta allocated to the participants according to following rules.

Fixed Grades

  1. For grades where only one participant requests production in its DOP. The delta is allocated to the participant with the DOP request as shown in following example. Consider a fixed grade I-390. Comparing the combined DOP for I-390 with its actual refinery production shows a delta of 7879 barrels. The entire delta is allocated to participant AOC, as BOC did not request production of this grade in its DOP:

    PARTICIPANT

    DOP, bbl

    DELTA, bbl

    AOC

    55300

    7879

    BOC

    0

    0

    TOTAL

    55300

    7879

    ACTUAL PRODUCTION

    63179

    DELTA

    7879

  2. For a grade where both participants request production in their DOP. Delta is allocated in the ratio of their DOP requests. However, if allocation by this rule causes negative closing inventory to a participant, the delta should be changed:

    PARTICIPANT

    DOP

    DOP RATIO

    DELTA

    LIFTING

    OPENING INVENTORY

    CLOSING INVENTORY

    AOC

    69185

    0.8279

    20126

    98000

    5260

    ?3429

    BOC

    14384

    0.1721

    4184

    0

    3400

    21968

    TOTAL

    83569

    1.0000

    24310

    8660

    18539

    PRODUCTION

    107879

    DELTA

    24310

    In this case, splitting the delta in the DOP ratio has caused negative closing inventory due to overlifting by one participant. Here, AOC s delta is made equal to (lifting opening inventory DOP) to eliminate the negative closing inventory as follows:

    PARTICIPANT

    DOP

    DELTA

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