Distribution Switchgear

Chapter 16: The Future

Overview

Forecasting the future is not without its hazards. History is littered with the failed prophecies of those who dared to forecast what was going to happen. The cause of this is that something completely unexpected crops up that turns the forecast on its head. So, being mindful of the hazards, these predictions are based upon the best information to-hand. Steering the ship by looking at its wake is far from ideal but does give an idea of where things will probably go.

Change is brought about by drivers which are both technical and economic. The main drivers for change are shown in Figure 16.1.


Figure 16.1: The drivers of change

Let us now look at the way in which each of these drivers brings about change.

16.1 Technology

Discreet enquiries have been made within the personal network of universities and industry. These suggest that while the influence of new materials and shapes is being widely explored in an attempt to reduce costs, as shown in Chapter 9 (Figure 9.5), there are no new technologies on the horizon that would compete with vacuum and SF 6.

There was some hope that liquid sodium devices would be a contender for a place in distribution switchgear, but it was only able to find an application within special low-voltage fuses.

As a significant proportion of problems with distribution switchgear involve parts that move, solid state switching held out the prospect of a brand new circuit breaker having no moving parts and no...

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