Analyzing Uncertainty in Civil Engineering

Thomas Fetz [1] , Johannes J ger [2] , David K ll [3] , G nther Krenn [4] , Heimo Lessmann [5] , Michael Oberguggenberger [6] , and Rudolf F. Stark [7]
Published originally in: Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering 14(2) (1999), 93 106 (H. Adeli, B. M ller (eds.), Special Issue: Fuzzy Modeling).
Summary. This article is devoted to a variety of applications of fuzzy models in civil engineering, presenting current work of a group of researchers at the University of Innsbruck. With fuzzy methods and possibility theory as an encompassing framework, the following addressed: uncertainties in geotechnical engineering, fuzzy finite element computation of a foundation raft, fuzzy dynamical systems, processing uncertainty in project scheduling and cost planning.
[1]Institut f r Mathematik und Geometrie, Universit t Innsbruck
[2]Beton- und Monierbau Innsbruck GesmbH
[3]Institut f r Baubetrieb und Bauwirtschaft, Universit t Innsbruck
[4]Institut f r Baubetrieb und Bauwirtschaft, Universit t Innsbruck
[5]Institut f r Baubetrieb und Bauwirtschaft, Universit t Innsbruck
[6]Institut f r Mathematik und Geometrie, Universit t Innsbruck
[7]Institut f r Festigkeitslehre, Universit t Innsbruck
Traditional engineering models are deterministic: sharp inputs are processed in a structurally determined system to produce a sharp output, which is taken as an approximate prediction of reality. To account for fluctuations, probability theory has been introduced. This shifts the emphasis from sharp input data to sharp probabilities of sharply defined events. Among engineers, there is increasing discomfort with the observed fact that predictions obtained in this way may deviate to such an extent from reality...