TABLE OF CONTENTS Forecasting is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.
Mark Twain
Cost modeling often is a confusing part of modeling and simulation (M&S) for space systems. Better understanding of how models develop can help integrate cost into simulations and assessments of a system's life cycle. Missions, projects, technologies, and other types of development are often evaluated based on estimated cost. Thus it's very important to incorporate all characteristics that affect cost a nearly impossible task that calls for continual improvement in how M&S tools develop.
Knowledgeable analysts are more important than any analysis tool. They must carefully consider every method's strengths and weaknesses to develop the best approach for a specific application. Tools are extremely helpful, but interpreting, analyzing, and explaining results to managers, project teams, technical experts, and others are the most critical parts of cost analysis. The ability to communicate results improves with understanding methods and gaining practical experience. This chapter describes these cost-modeling methods, discusses current techniques, and presents examples of assessing life-cycle cost, high-level risk, and integrated cost and risk.
Ambitious goals and fiscal constraints for space projects require engineers to thoroughly evaluate trade-offs among project goals, risks, and costs. Implementing projects "faster, better, cheaper" means trying to achieve these goals at reduced cost, usually accompanied by more risk. When these missions are successful, managers often point out how much they accomplished for so little cost compared with past projects. When they fail, analysts...
