Modern Actuarial Risk Theory

CHAPTER 7

Section 7.2

1.

Finish the proofs of Theorems 7.2.2 and 7.2.4 by filling in and deriving the relevant covariance relations (7.15). Use and verify the linearity properties of covariances: for all random variables X, Y and Z, we have Cov[ X, Y + Z] = Cov[ X, Y] + Cov[ X, Z], while for all real ?, Cov[ X, ?Y] = ?Cov[ X, Y].

2.

Let X 1, , X T be uncorrelated random variables with mean m and variance s 2. Consider the weighted average X w = ? t w tX t, where the weights w t ? 0, t = 1, T satisfy ? t w t = 1. Show that E[ X w] = m, Cov[ X t, X w] = w ts 2 and Var[ X w] = ? t s 2. [If especially , we get X w = X and E[ X] = m; Cov[ X t, X] = Var[ X] = .]

3.

Show that the sample variance is an unbiased estimator of s 2.

4.

Show that the best predictor of X j,T + 1 is at the same time the best estimator of the risk premium m + ?

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