TABLE OF CONTENTS In many fields of engineering, achieving a specific target is done by evaluating the deterministic performance of the design under study, with possibly a few representative scenarios.
Unfortunately, the phenomena which constitute a building fire and the concomitant fire fighting exhibit much uncontrollable variability. The sources of this variability are, among others:
The inherent variability of fire and smoke spread.
Lack of knowledge regarding the type, quantity and geometry of the fuel.
Lack of knowledge regarding whether doors and windows are closed or open.
Lack of knowledge regarding the occupants of the building and their likely reaction to the fire.
Lack of knowledge regarding the actions of the fire brigade.
In addition, there are other sources of variability which derive from the shortcomings of the modelling of the fire.
Thus, simulating a fire with a few deterministic models may be very misleading. It is necessary to take into account how often the various possibilities for each event do occur.
