Risk Analysis in Building Fire Safety Engineering

Chapter 8: Risk Analysis of Fire Initiation

8.1 Ignition Frequency

For quantitative estimation of fire risks, reliable ignition frequency derived from fire statistics is a prerequisite. Annual ignition frequency obviously depends on the type of building. The average annual ignition frequency is the probability of a building catching fire per unit of floor area (measured in square metres) per annum. Average ignition frequency for three European locations and different building categories is given in Table 8.1

Table 8.1: Average ignition frequency ( 10 ?6) per square metre per annum

London 1996 1999

Switzerland 1986 1995

Finland 1996 2001

Industrial and storage

6.9

11.1

Shop and commercial

22.0

6.6

Office

5.3

2.5

Dwellings

33.3

6.3

Public office

10.6

4.7

Industrial

11.6

9.6

All

32.3

9.0

8.1.1 Dependence on the floor area

It has been known for some time [52,53] that within each building category ignition frequency also depends on the floor area of the building. Let f ( A) represent the average annual probability of a fire starting in a building in the category under study with area A, per unit area. Ramachandran [53] argued that since probability of a fire starting depends on the amount and nature of the ignition sources, and since the number of these sources increases with the area of the building, f ( A) is primarily a function of...

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