Overview

Attempting to predict the future is notoriously difficult and anyone who does so is providing a hostage to fortune. In 1965, Penguin Books published The World in 1984, a paperback that was based on a series of articles that had appeared in The New Scientist in 1964. These articles were written by eminent scientists and industrialists of the day, who were asked to predict the likely developments 20 years ahead in their respective fields of specialization. Re-reading this fascinating book today, two general conclusions emerge:

1. there was much optimism over how quickly new technology might evolve - almost 40 years on, some of the developments are still awaiting realization, for instance: the widespread use of supersonic jets for long-haul flights and electricity generation by magnetohydrodynamics

2. some of the really important advances that have subsequently taken place were not foreseen at all, e.g. integrated circuits, micro-processors, and the world-wide-web.

Notwithstanding these two generalizations, the various contributors showed good foresight, even if some of the timings were incorrect. History has shown, however, that elsewhere there have been some disastrously wrong forecasts by eminent 'authorities', for example:

"The 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication."
Western Union internal memo, 1876.

'Aeroplanes are interesting toys, but of no military value.'
Marshal Foch, 1911.

'I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.'
Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943.

With respect to energy sustainability, the predictions have been uniformly poor. In 1920,...