Overview

We live in an era of increasing use of diverse technologies in all aspects of life, from ingestible radio transmitters and fluorescent quantum dots for medical diagnosis and treatment, ^[11] to multifunctional cell phones that take digital photographs and receive and transmit electronic mail. In a previous RAND Corporation study, The Global Technology Revolution: Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and Their Synergies with Information Technology by 2015 (hereafter referred to as GTR2015), ^[12] we investigated the pace and impacts of technology development, projected to 2015, and concluded that the world is undergoing a global technology revolution that is integrating developments in biotechnology, nanotechnology, materials technology, and information technology at an accelerating pace. ^[13] This report describes the results of a recent effort to update this foresight activity and extend its time horizon to 2020. It is important to note that these studies are foresight activities ^[14] that examined trends, breakthroughs, and indicators of possible future developments based on sound research progress today, without predicting a single future state or timeline. Foresights are useful in that they explore the possible to give a sense of what might happen without trying to make predictions that are impossible given uncertainties. While surprises may still happen, and can certainly have significant impact in the time period considered, our assessments are grounded in that we assess technical viability based on real research and development (R&D) progress (versus pure science and technology [S&T] conjecture) and consider modifying factors such as demand, drivers,...