Introduction

This appendix presents a foresight of technological trends for the year 2020 based on current research and development in information technology (IT). As a result of the breadth of the field, the topics chosen are only a subset of the IT-related trends that could have substantial social and political effects sampled in the main report, but it provides a more in-depth discussion of specific areas.

The following trends are first briefly discussed: the convergence of technologies; growth in volume and types of personal data (e.g., through sensors, biometrics, cameras, and Global Positioning System [GPS]) and subsequent database issues; and trending toward smaller, mobile electronics devices. Within each of these discussions, trends are presented as follows: the development or trend in technology today; where it might lead to by 2020; and what the social and/or policy implications might be. By and large, the social issues raised by IT developments are privacy and anonymity, which are also being addressed through science and engineering by a growing number of researchers. This type of research will be discussed next, followed by a brief exploratory discussion of foresights in robotics, IT in education, IT in helping those with physical disabilities or ailments, and other areas.

Convergence of Technologies

Currently, many services and goods are coupled with information technology. For example, consumers can get broadband access to the Internet through their cable or phone provider. Or they may own a PDA/cell phone/camera that they also use to check...