TABLE OF CONTENTS The following is an outline of TechNav a comprehensive process for the conceptual development of next-generation technologies and products based on the laws and lines of technological system evolution and business analysis (Fig. 6.1). The major points of this process are listed here.
Phase 1: analysis of the past and current system s evolution. This stage is essentially about the analysis of an S-curve. The evolution of any technological system usually follows an S-shaped curve that reflects the dynamic of the system s benefit-to-cost ratio from the time of the system s inception (Fig. 6.2). An analysis of innovation activity allows for positioning the technology or product of interest on its S-curve, thus helping to define the technology (product) strategy.
Fig. 6.2: Typical S-curve of a technological system.
Phase 2: determination of high-potential innovations. At this phase, the laws and lines of evolution are used to identify strategic directions of the technology s evolution. In addition, the current innovation landscape (strategy) is analyzed and new ideas are developed.
Phase 3: concept development. As a rule, transition from one stage of evolution to the next is accompanied by the development of system conflicts and other conceptual design problems that need to be resolved.
Phase 4: concept selection and technology plan. In this phase, the developed concepts are evaluated against various engineering, economic and other criteria, and the best ones are selected for both short- and long-term testing and implementation.
