25.1 Introduction

As stated in the introductory Chapter, satellite communications in the late 1990s is in another interesting period of change and this is not the best time to, make predictions for the future. As this Section is being written the first of the GMPCS satellite constellations (Iridium) is about to launch its service. This represents a tremendous change from the thirty-odd years in which the GEO ruled supreme. Both of the major IGOs, INTELSAT and INMARSAT, are embarked on the process of becoming private organisations after having dominated innovation in satellite communications for the same period of time. Thus satellite communication, despite being a truly global business, is set to become a predominantly commercial one. We are also witnessing convergence of manufacturers, service providers and content providers to provide new systems in a different format than hitherto. There is a convergence of media data, voice and video and the beginnings of a demand for interactive/multimedia services on the back of the explosion in demand for Internet.

The commercial world is one of greater risks and we already see very large satellite projects of between US$1 10 billion well into implementation. Obviously, key to the risks is the ability to be able to predict markets and to design and engineer the satellite system efficiently for coverage and service types.

This, in itself, is a paradigm shift from the old days when one launched a general purpose satellite and waited for the markets to emerge, this is no longer...