Fault Trees

Appendix C: Some Results of Probabilities

Overview

This appendix contains the elements of the theory of probabilities that are necessary in the statement of the Monte Carlo method.

Proposition C.1: (Chebychev Inequality)

Consider a square intergrable r.v X. Then for all ? > 0, we have:

(C.1)

Definition C.2: (i.i.d Sequences)

A sequence of r.v ( X n, n ? 1) defined on the probability space ( ?, , ?) is said to be i.i.d, when any finite sequence extracted from this sequence is of the i.i.d type Set S n = X 1 + ... + X n. n ? 1.

Proposition C.3: (Week Law of Large Numbers: Khintchine Theorem)

Let there be a sequence of r.v ( X n, n ? 1) i.i.d with . When n ? ?, we have

(C.2)

Proposition C.4: (Strong Law of Large Numbers: Kolmogorov Theorem)

Let there be a sequence of r.v ( X n, n ? 1) i.i.d. Then, is a necessary and sufficient condition such that the sequence ( X n) verifies the law of large numbers, i.e. when n ? ?, we have

(C.3)

Example C.3:

For a series of independent events ( A n, n ? 1) and of the same probability p, the strong law of large numbers says that the frequencies converge almost surely (a.s) towards p when n ? ?. This result justifies the estimation of the probabilities through the frequencies.

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