OVERVIEW

Predicting the future has always been a challenging and usually unsuccessful undertaking. In spite of the mountain of evidence that it cannot be done, we will attempt it anyway. First let us look at major trends that affect the fiber optics industry.

1. Increased fiber transparency

2. All-optical networks

3. Multi-terabit transmission

4. Competing technologies

5. Expansion into mass markets

6. Cost reductions

7. Miniaturization

8. New materials

9. Technology refinements

10. New technology

The order of the items is intentional. Depending on the specific product and market considered, the main thrusts in the fiber optics industry today cover in the first four to seven items. Most prognosticators of the future focus on number ten, new technology. Today, in the second age of fiber optics, the DWDM age, new technology is having a huge impact on the industry.

Expansion into mass markets and cost reduction go hand-in-hand. Fiber optics has always suffered from the chicken and egg syndrome. High volumes would create a price drop, but high volumes would not be realized until prices dropped. For example, many large, well-financed fiber optics companies went bankrupt in the early 1990's gambling that fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) would take off at any moment. It didn't, and so far it hasn't. It probably will, but exactly how and when remains the multi-billion dollar question. Let's look at each of the ten points listed in some detail to get a better picture of what is happening and what is likely to happen.

INCREASED FIBER TRANSPARENCY

Earlier, this book discussed the four windows used in fiber...